Russia has changed the tone slightly.
On December 23, Putin said at a press conference at the end of the year, "We are seeing positive reactions for now. American partners are prepared to start this negotiations in Geneva at the beginning of the year.He said there was. "
For a week, I was nervous, but a little hope was seen in negotiations.
Russia's Foreign Minister Lovelov explained in detail that Russian adviser Yuri Ushakov and US national security adviser Jake Salivan should be launched in January.
I would like to see the steps of the past month.
On December 8, President Biden said that he had not considered dispatching the U.S. Army to Ukraine if Russia invaded Ukraine.
On December 17, Russia presented an unreasonable task to the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
It is to return to the state in 1997.In other words, it means returning to the state before NATO expanded to Eastern Europe (East Germany is a unified German member in 1990).
Specifically, it is as follows.
◎ Baltic three countries are now NATO member countries, but they do not have NATO army.
◎ Ukraine, Georgia, and other candidate nations do not further expand NATO.
Discard the 2008 decision, which opened the NATO member of the NATO member in both countries, "officially".
◎ Short / medium -range missiles are not deployed within the opponent's range.
◎ NATO should not do any military activities not only in Ukraine but also in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and South Caucasus.
The above requirements are unreasonable content that wants to make the history of a quarter -century of history.
These circumstances have revealed anxiety about Japan.After all, President Biden has stated that he will not put out the army in Ukraine.
"Is it okay to clearly say that at the stage of negotiations?"Then, I won the advantageous conditions and situations. "
He is anxious about President Biden's abilities and attitudes, and is worried that the same happens in Taiwan.
This anxiety is understood because the area around Japan is still in the cold war.I thought, "I don't have to say that clearly."
But if you keep watching the US and European relations, it wasn't so surprising and I think it has another meaning.I would like to explain this below.
First, Putin only deals with the United States, but President Biden is different.
French President Macron wants to meet Putin, but is ignored.You may say "ignoring cancer".The same is true for German Prime Minister Cholz.
On the 22nd, only telephone talks with the German -French leaders were realized.
Putin's head is completely cold war.But that is also the truth.It's like "I don't need to talk to Japan in the military. I just have to talk to the United States."On the contrary, it made me feel the seriousness of Putin.
The negotiations between Putin and the President of Biden are not planned in the future, but negotiations with major politicians in the two countries are continuing.
On the other hand, the Biden administration is a member of the NATO, and has maintained cooperation with European partners (mostly EU member countries).
フランスの「ル・モンド」紙によると、バイデン大統領のアメリカは、中国とインド太平洋を重視しており、そのような古典的な冷戦パターンを復活させることに関心がないのだという。
That's why the United States emphasizes diversity.
There are classic US Russia Councils as we are doing now, but there are many other ways.NATO and Russia talk at the Board of Directors, discussed between 57 members of the European Security Cooperation Agency (OSCE) (like the Crimea's annexation), and the same as the Ukrainian agreement on the Ukrainian problem, Minsk 2.It is said that there is a method of discussing in Russia, Ukraine + France and Germany under the OSCE coach.
In detail, the background of this statement is that the EU wants the "Minsk 2" method, the "NATO + Russia" system, and Russia wants a US dialogue.
In any case, such a cooperative relationship between Europe and the United States is traditional (unlike Trump).But Europe knows that the United States is no longer a high military interest in Europe, as before.The Cold War is over.
Rather, "Russia is being cornered to be cornered," "I have no intention to attack."In other words, it can be said to be a state of biting a rat cat.The best way to the mouse is not to show the intention of the attack first.
And the Russian army collection problem near the border has not occurred in the past month.It has been around for less than a year, gathering and retracting.
ロシアが問題視してきたのは、むしろ、アメリカによるウクライナへの軍事資金の援助だと言われてきた。
It's a very easy -to -understand story, and it would be nice if Ukraine became stronger, even if NATO did not protect.The American military industry is also being ordered and moisturized.
This year, the United States has spent about 450 million dollars in Ukraine's security cooperation.About 51.5 billion yen.This is usually equivalent to Ethiopia's annual defense expenses (the 88th in the world, a slightly older number in 2010).
Since 2014, when Russia occupied the Crimean Peninsula, the United States has provided more than $ 2.5 billion in Ukraine.
In March, the United States Defense announced a $ 125 million military support package, including two armed patrol boats supporting Ukraine's territorial defense.
At the end of October, 30 anti -tank defense systems "JAVELIN" were delivered.
According to Wall Street Journal, there is also a story about the Mi-17 helicopter used in Afghanistan.Ukraine says that not only the sea but also air defense systems.
"We support the training and equipment to protect themselves when the Ukrainian is attacked," he said in 2017, appointed Ukraine representative in the United States.・ It is Folker.He is currently a researcher at the European Policy Analysis Center (CEPA).
"President Biden chose to not pursue Russia in many issues, such as the annexation of Crimea, some of Georgia, the elections, the poisoning of Navalny, the assassination in Europe and the poisoning."
"I guess I wanted to create a more stable, easy -to -predict relationship in the two countries with Moscow."
"The Ukrainian side should have more reforms, such as law control, justice, corruption, and interaction with NATO."
Certainly, President Biden, hosted by a democratic summit, is frustrated by Ukrainian corruption and governance (governance), without much step into NATO's member problem when Ukraine's Zelenceky visited Washington in September.It was reported.
Folka said, "Just because Ukraine is not ready for NATO member and not actively promoting the member of the United States means that this outlook should be removed from the table forever."I also say.
"Ukraine and Georgia are independent countries with the right to choose the direction of security.That's. "
次に、今一番米欧が気をつけているのは、ロシアに攻撃の口実を与えることだ。
So pay attention to your behavior.
President Biden's remarks can be stated that if President Putin really decided to invade, he was "not bad" and "because of Russia, so I had to deal with it."It is analyzed that it seems to be the evidence of the escape of responsibility.
That point is the same on the Russian side.
It is not seen that President Putin has hit an impossible demand because President Biden shows his weakness.
Putin also says that it seems to be evidence of a responsibility to escape, saying, "I made a formal request, but I didn't try to hear it at all."
また、クレムリンに近いとされるアナリスト、フョードル・ルキアノフの雑誌『Russia in Global Affairs』は、「最後通牒を思わせる」と述べているという。
In other words, the situation does not seem to have changed from the beginning.Putin's ultimate goal remains unknown.There is still the question of whether or not the country will invade Ukraine, even if the state is catastrophic in economic sanctions.
Russia is no longer a regional power, and there is no feature of the past.The Russian economy is said to be dying for many years of sanctions.
Reference article: Is Biden's "Unprecedented economic sanctions in Russia" a nuclear bomb swift?What is the problem: European Parliament and Ukraine
For the strategic territory of the Crimea and the Black Sea, there is a high possibility that the south and east of Ukraine territory are intended.Furthermore, if the "Russian birthplace", the war may be even bigger to regain the capital, Kiev.
On the other hand, there is a possibility that this state will continue as it is, and for the time being, diplomatic compromise may be born."For the time being," because it is unlikely that the United States and Europe will drink Russia's demands as they are.
How will January negotiations carry it?Russia has repeatedly demanded a guarantee of his security, not ten years later, but now.He said he did not exclude the contact with Europe, which he had been ignoring so far.It is still unknown whether it is direct or a framework of the European Security Cooperation Agency (OSCE).
プーチン大統領の心の内は誰にもわからないが、なぜ今この事態かというのなら、ゼレンスキー大統領のアメリカとNATOへの接近、当人の年齢（６９歳）だけではなく、唯一話ができる相手と言われてきたメルケル首相（６７歳）の引退も関係あるかもしれない。
Former Prime Minister Merkel from East Germany and speaks Russian.She said that when she had a conversation, she spoke Russian and Putin was speaking German.
Unlike the two of these generations, the average age of the leading leaders of the EU member is young in their 50s.In particular, Western Europe is younger than Eastern Europe.
Reference article: The next US President has been decided by the elderly.How old are the leaders in Europe and East Asian leaders now?As a surprise result.
Young is not only because democracy is well around, but also unless you are a generation that can understand the EU, you can't do politics.They have little common base with Putin.
The Cold War is over in Europe.Another new era is beginning to come.But there are still issues that are still left.It is the countries that make up the Soviet Union, more east of Eastern Europe.
After Putin, Russia's democratization seems to be inevitable, and Ukraine has been left on the way, with the United States no longer in Europe.The next one may be Moldova (and Doniestor Republic) ...
At last, negotiations have been set up in January, but what is European thinking and thinking about Russia's "ignored" situation?
Russia almost ignored the NATO's call on the dialogue, and spoke only with the United States, but the psychological effects on the EU and European leaders would be significant.I even feel that this may lead to a historical impact on the future direction of the EU.
I want to write again the draft of this problem.