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Even in China?What is the fear of "40 % decrease in young people" in 1.4 billion countries indicated by "Young cars away" ... 4th: China Innovation Convention | Business+IT

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    Even in China?What is the fear of

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  • Even in China?What is the fear of "40 % decreasing" in 1.4 billion countries, indicated by "Youth Car Target"?

    4th: China Innovation situation

    The number of new cars in China has broken the previous year in 28 years in 2018, and is still shocking stakeholders.The Chinese automobile market has always grown up to the right, but has a plateau.If this is due to a temporary decline in the economy, it can be expected to recover, but the situation is serious.The cause is considered to be rooted in the long -term trend, and one pointed out is the long -term "youth car" in Japan.It is said that there is a situation that is not enough for the automotive industry alone.

    IT journalist Takefumi Makino

    IT journalist Takefumi Makino

    An article that discusses IT technology from a consumer business perspective to various media.In recent years, he has been paying attention to Chinese IT technology.His books include "Google's identity" (Mai Komi Shinsho) and "Nintendo Nostalgi" (Kadokawa Shinsho).

    <目次>2018年、中国の新車販売台数が、28年ぶりに前年割れになった。その理由としては、さまざまなものが指摘されている。米中貿易摩擦による景気の不透明感からの買い控えというのもその1つで、そうであるなら深刻とまでは言えない。時間はかかっても、いつかは回復をするからだ。自動車販売にマイナスの影響を与える長期トレンドもいくつも指摘されている。そのような長期トレンドが主要因だとするならば、中国の自動車販売は頭打ちになり、各メーカーとも戦略転換を迫られることになる。指摘されている長期トレンドの1つが、中古車市場の拡大だ。各中古車販売業者の多くがWebサイトやスマートフォンを活用しており、状態の良い中古車を探しやすくなっていることから、新車ではなく中古車を買う人が増えている。新車販売台数と中古車販売台数を合計すると、2018年は中古車の割合が30%を超え、新車、中古車の合計販売台数では、2018年もわずかながら前年を上回っている。ただし、「新車を買う人が中古車に流れている」かどうかは、より詳細な市場分析をしないとわからない。購買力の小さな地方都市や農村では、中古車を買う傾向にあるので、「都市部では自動車市場が飽和をし、地方の中古車市場が成長している」可能性も否定できないからだ。関連記事

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    実際、都市部では自動車が飽和している。10年ほど前まで、中国人の多くが「自分の車を持ちたい」と言っていたのに、今の都市生活者は「自動車はいらない」と言い始めている。その最大の理由は、「激しい渋滞」と「駐車場不足」だ。特に駐車場不足は深刻で、目的地周辺まで車で行ってみたものの、空いている駐車場が見つからずに引き返すという事態は日常茶飯事だ。一方で、交通渋滞の原因となる違法駐車の取り締まりは厳格になってきたので、都市の移動手段としては、マイカーはやっかいな代物になってしまっている。ファミリー層が郊外に出かけるのには便利で快適だが、週末だけの利用であれば、レンタカーやカーシェアリングで間に合ってしまう。さらに車離れに追い風を送るのは、地下鉄、バスなどの公共交通の利便性が向上していることだ。中心部では、地下鉄だけでなく、バスですら数分おきにくるのが当たり前になっている。バスに関しては、ラッシュ時には専用レーンを設けている都市が多く、渋滞時でも遅延は一般車に比べれば小さい。また、運行データを公開している都市も多く、地図アプリなどでリアルタイムの運行状況を知ることができ、実際の到着時間を考慮したルート案内を表示してくれる。いつもスマホを見ていたい若者にとって、自分で運転をしなければならない自動車よりも、スマホを見ていられる公共交通の方が快適になってきているのだ。このような変化は、自動車産業にとっては大きなインパクトがあるが、他の先進国で起きている変化と基本的には同じ現象とも言える。【次ページ】自動車産業だけの問題ではない

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