| Policies/Trends | < td>Renewable EnergyIT | Mobility | Technology/Services | Finance |
August 31, 2021
General Incorporated Association Energy Information Center
Shindenryoku Net Management Office
The surplus power purchase system started in 2009. The Agency for Natural Resources and Energy has announced that 530,000 cases will be exempted from the system in 2019, the 10th anniversary, and a total of 1.65 million cases will be excluded from the system by 2023. Therefore, the introduction of storage batteries has progressed from the aspect of self-consumption of electricity. In this two-part series, we will consider the future of home storage batteries while referring to cases from other countries and examples of services provided by companies. In vol.1, we will organize the current situation of the domestic storage battery market where the number of overseas manufacturers such as Tesla and Huawei is increasing.
The following shows the trends in shipments of storage batteries for households by fiscal year. In 2012 after the Great East Japan Earthquake, a subsidy of up to 1 million yen per house was issued to support the introduction of household storage batteries for the purpose of securing emergency power sources and resolving power shortages. , the number of units sold increased significantly.
However, since the system was abolished in 2015 and there was no subsidy system for storage batteries only, things calmed down a bit in 2016. After that, demand increased again as the surplus power purchase period for solar power generation, which started in 2009, began to expire*. In fiscal 2020, the number of shipments is 127,000 units (110% compared to the previous year).
*Since the purchase period for surplus electricity from residential solar power generation is stipulated to be 10 years at a fixed price, those who have applied for the surplus electricity purchase system that started in November 2009 , From November 2019, the 10-year purchase period will expire in sequence.
Shipment record of stationary LIB power storage system (number of units) Source: Japan Electrical Manufacturers' Association
In addition, the following is an international comparison chart of the stationary energy storage system market overview. Even considering the population, it seems that the introduction of storage batteries for home use in Japan is progressing. (Calculation conditions for each country are not the same.) Examples of initiatives in other countries are described in vol.2.
International Comparison of Stationary Energy Storage System Market Overview Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
By the way, even after the FIT system ends, it is still possible to choose a power company and sell electricity. However, compared to the purchase price of 48 yen when power generation is started at the start of the system, the purchase price is significantly lower at 7 to 9 yen per kilowatt hour. Some of the new electric power companies, not the former general electric power companies, buy electricity at a high price, but even so, it is not as good as the FIT price (reference: https://price-energy.com/solar_plan). .
If the purchase price drops significantly, the benefits of self-consumption will be greater than selling electricity, and storage of electricity will be required in order to consume solar-generated electricity at night. For this reason, hybrid power storage systems have been proposed for replacement or new installation of power conditioners for photovoltaic power generation systems, leading to revitalization of the market. In the future, it is expected that the number of cases where storage batteries will be introduced in combination with photovoltaic power generation systems will increase.
With this in mind, in March 2019, MDB Digital Search provided by the Japan Management Association Research Institute investigated the domestic storage battery market in Japan and estimated the market size. I expected it to be in the billions of dollars. (See diagram)
Household battery market size and forecast Source: MDB Digital Search
Furthermore, in February 2021, the Study Group for the Spread and Expansion of Stationary Energy Storage Systems predicted the number of energy storage systems to be introduced by 2030, assuming the following two points.
As a result, ``When the number of power storage systems installed for new and existing homes is totaled, the market in 2019 was 110,000 units per year, but in 2025, it will be 260,000 units per year (cumulative total of 1.58 million units). ), and is expected to expand to 350,000 units per year (cumulative total of 3.14 million units) by 2030 (excluding replacements).” (See diagram)
Results and outlook for the number of household storage battery systems installed (flow) Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
In addition, the ratio of power storage system introduction (both cumulative) to PV introduction is 44% in 2025 and about 77% in 2030.
In this way, home storage batteries are expected to grow steadily. Next, we will discuss its features, advantages and disadvantages.
The market price for installing a storage battery for home use varies depending on the capacity, etc., but it is said to be about 800,000 to 2,000,000 yen, including the main unit plus construction costs. Household storage batteries generally have a storage capacity of 5 to 7 kWh. The product life expectancy is about 10 to 15 years.
The advantage of introducing a storage battery is that you can use household electrical energy efficiently. The general consensus is that electricity prices will continue to rise. It is an economic advantage to reduce electricity costs by staggering the times when electricity is used (purchased), such as storing electricity in storage batteries at night and using the electricity stored during the day. In addition, the stored electricity can be used even during power outages, so it is useful in emergencies. In the event of a disaster, power outages may occur, and in some cases power may not be restored for several days. Even in such a case, if there is a storage battery, the possibility of reducing the impact on life in an emergency increases. In recent years, as the risk of power outages has increased due to disasters caused by typhoons and heavy rain, and the blackout that occurred in Hokkaido in September 2018, it seems that more and more people are considering the introduction of storage batteries.
The disadvantage is that you have to prepare a large initial cost. As mentioned above, the cost of purchasing a storage battery is said to be around 1 million to 2 million yen. In addition, storage batteries are assumed to be operated for a long period of about 15 years, so the risk of failure (maintenance and replacement) must also be considered. Even if there are no failures during the service life, there is a high possibility that the initial cost cannot be amortized (various factors such as family composition, lifestyle, amount of power generated by the system, roof shape, direction, etc. are involved). In addition, it is necessary to secure a certain installation space to introduce a storage battery. In vol.2, we will introduce an example of a subscription-type service that solves this initial cost hurdle.
Main domestic manufacturers of storage batteries for home use include Sharp, Kyocera, Nichicon, Panasonic, Omron, and Itochu Corporation. On the other hand, overseas manufacturers with low prices and good performance have recently entered the Japanese market.
A typical example is Tesla's "Powerwall". Installation in Japan began in the spring of 2020. In 2019, the Liberal Democratic Party negotiated with the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, and the ban on sales in Japan of Tesla, which is overwhelmingly cheap at half the price of domestic manufacturers for home use, was lifted. I thought that would ignite price competition in Japan.
The selling price of "Powerwall" in Japan is 990,000 yen at 13.5 kilowatt hours. Since it is a little over 70,000 yen when converted to 1 kWh, it is "well below the Japanese average of around 180,000 yen." Tesla is taking a strategy to float distribution costs with direct sales on the internet. On the other hand, according to a survey by the Mitsubishi Research Institute in Japan, equipment-related costs for energy storage systems are 150,000 yen per kilowatt hour, and distribution costs paid to wholesalers and others are 70,000 yen.
It's not just Japan, but in May, Tesla announced the completion of its 200,000th "Powerwall" installation. Demand has doubled over the past year. At the financial results briefing, the company said that it will not sell only "Solar Roof" panel products without Powerwall in the future, emphasizing that it will sell solar power generation and storage batteries as a set as a system.
In addition, among the emerging Chinese companies in solar power generation, Huawei held the "HUAWEI Digital Power Product Exhibition and Exchange" at the Meiji Kinenkan on November 5-6, 2020. We exhibited a wide range of new products such as solar power equipment such as power conditioners, UPS solutions and data centers, and attracted more than 1,000 visitors over the two days. Huawei is known as a power conditioner manufacturer that boasts the top share in the global market, but it also has the top share in UPS and smartphone-related storage batteries. Mr. Zhang, General Manager of the Digital Power Business Division, said, "The power storage system we announced this time is a long-awaited application of the experience and technology we have accumulated in other fields to the field of photovoltaic power generation."
The hybrid storage battery “LUNA2000”, which is lightweight and compact, has a long life of 12,000 cycles, and has one of the best performance in the industry, such as a conversion efficiency of 97.0%, will be on sale in Japan from early 2021. Another feature is that even if new storage battery modules and old storage battery modules are mixed, they will not be affected by each other. Since the number of modules can be increased after several years, it can be said that the storage system can flexibly respond to changes in lifestyles. In addition, it is equipped with a function that switches to independent operation mode within 5 seconds when a power failure is detected, making it a reassuring product in the event of a disaster.
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Shindenryoku Net Management Office
EIC aims to contribute to the stable supply of energy through activities related to (1) disseminating accurate information about energy in an objective and easy-to-understand manner and (2) creating new businesses that integrate ICT and energy. A management organization of the new power net established for the purpose.
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