The Senkaku Islands are substantially under Japanese rule.However, China claims that it is a territory unique to China, and is trying to take various means to dominate the Senkaku Islands.Tomohide Murai, a co -author of "The Essence of Failure," explains the scenario.
The Senkaku Islands are substantially under Japanese rule.However, China has claimed that the Senkaku Islands is a unique territory of China, and is trying to take various means to control the Senkaku Islands under control.What kind of scenarios could be if China actually robbed the Senkaku?* This article is partially excerpted and edited by Tomohide Murai's "The Essence of the Japan -China Crisis" (PHP Institute).
If China tries to capture the Senkaku Islands from Japan, three scenarios are considered.(1) Military operations, (2) international trials, (3) diplomatic negotiations.When it is taken in military operations, China must win the war.China, Japan, and the United States will be involved in war.Comparing the military power of the three countries, the United States is overwhelmingly strong, followed by China and Japan third.Therefore, China will lose if war with the United States.The condition is that China will not war with the United States to win the war.The war between Japan and China is divided into three levels, a nuclear war, a full -scale war with normal weapons, and a small local war.Japan, which has no nuclear weapons and only one -tenth of the Chinese troops in the nuclear war and all -out war, may beat China, a military power of hundreds of nuclear weapons and missiles.However, if a war between China and Japan occurs, the United States is more likely to intervene.The United States will intervene on a large scale to compete with the safety of the United States and the serious threats that threaten the global rule of the United States.If Japan loses to China and under the ruling of China, the United States will lose its Indian Pacific strategy, and the US world strategy will be seriously injured.Therefore, the United States will intervene in the nuclear war between Japan and China and the full war.If the United States intervenes on a large scale, China will lose the war and the Communist government will collapse.The Chinese Communist Party is a rational actor who emphasizes the maintenance of the Dictatorial government by the Communist Party, and will not commit suicide.
If it becomes a nuclear war or a full war, the government's losing country will fall.However, the government does not fall down if the participating troops are less than 1,000 and the casualties are 100 or less.The government will claim to the people that even if you lose the local war, you can finally win if you expand the war just by losing a small war.If the people believe that claim, the government will not collapse.Also, even if the US government explains that a small island floating on the sea 10,000 km away is a vibrant and important island for the United States, many US people are not convinced, and the US military intervenes.The Chinese government may think that he will not agree.If the United States does not intervene, the local war will be a daytime battle.In the local war where the power and battlefields are limited and China's physical dominance cannot be used, the daytime military balance is not advantageous to China.If the United States intervenes, China will not win, but in the case of local wars, there is no guarantee that the Chinese army will win without the United States.If the Chinese Communist Party is a reasonable actor, you will be cautious about military action.